Newcastle v Milan in the Champions League is a huge game for both struggling teams

The so-called “Group of Death” has certainly lived up to its moniker so far — and, for Newcastle United and AC Milan, there is one last opportunity to progress to the Champions League knockout stages by claiming victory at St James’ Park on Wednesday night.

For both, the ramifications of qualification would be huge, although failure to advance may have even further-reaching consequences.

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Neither, however, have their fate in their own hands.

Both must win to have any chance of reaching the last 16 and they are also relying on already-qualified Borussia Dortmund doing them a favour at home against Paris Saint-Germain. Milan require a Dortmund victory, while Newcastle merely need the German side, who will finish as Group F winners with a draw, to avoid defeat. For Newcastle, a point will secure third place and Europa League football in 2024, while Milan must triumph to remain in continental competition beyond Christmas.

Group F standings

With all Champions League eventualities still possible for both clubs, The Athletic’s Newcastle United correspondent Chris Waugh and Serie A writer James Horncastle outline how the two sides are shaping up heading into an enormously significant clash on Tyneside…

Why is this a big game for Newcastle?

Chris Waugh: The obvious answer is that, for just the second time in their history and for the first time since 2002-03, Newcastle have the opportunity to advance out of the Champions League group stages.

In fact, qualification would mark Newcastle’s first journey into the knockout stages of Europe’s premier competition given there was a second pool stage when they progressed out of the first group 21 years ago.

But, beyond that, the financial ramifications of going deeper into the tournament would be significant. Newcastle would receive an additional £10million to £15million ($12.6m to $18.9m) in revenue, as a minimum conservative estimate, and that will help slacken their financial fair play (FFP) limitations, potentially permitting Eddie Howe greater spending power in the January market and in subsequent windows. Quality players may also be more inclined to join a Newcastle side that progresses in the Champions League rather than one who are knocked out early.

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What’s more, following deflating back-to-back defeats against Everton and Tottenham Hotspur, when Newcastle conceded a combined seven goals, this feels like a potentially season-defining fixture in a campaign that is close to teetering.

Progress and the positive momentum could reignite Newcastle’s Premier League top-four push. Lose and exit Europe entirely and the deflation could have the opposite effect.

Why is this a big game for Milan?

James Horncastle: Milan are seven-time winners of this competition. It’s what the club built its reputation on and while Serie A has been left behind financially by the Premier League, forcing a change of model, expectations were raised last season when Milan made it to the semi-finals for the first time in 16 years.

Backing it up was always going to be tough, particularly as they entered the draw in pot four after a fourth-place finish in Serie A, which would have been fifth had Juventus not been deducted 10 points.

If Milan’s project is to maintain momentum, it needs Champions League revenue. The club made €80m from the competition last year and Sandro Tonali’s record sale to Newcastle was helped by the exposure he received by going deep in the tournament.

Dropping into the Europa League would be humbling. Finishing bottom would be humiliating.

Why are Newcastle struggling of late?

Waugh: There’s quite a lot of recency bias in this question given Newcastle have recorded back-to-back home wins against Chelsea and Manchester United and were only denied a famous win in Paris due to a controversial stoppage-time penalty, but the manner of the latest successive defeats was alarming.

Add to that Newcastle’s worrying away form — they have won only twice on the road all season and have not triumphed away from St James’ Park in the Champions League — and the premise is not entirely invalid.

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Essentially, the root of Newcastle’s issues has been their absentee crisis. Their injury list has been so bloated — and has been exacerbated further by Tonali’s 10-month suspension, which rules the midfielder out of facing his former side — that Howe has regularly had 10 to 12 players unavailable in recent weeks. The same 10 outfield players have started the last five matches in the past 15 days and appear mentally and physically fatigued, though Howe has been reluctant to turn to his threadbare bench to lessen the workload.

Why are Milan struggling so much of late?

Horncastle: Milan won seven of their first eight games in the league and should have been in a commanding position in the Champions League. Unfortunately, back-to-back 0-0 results against Newcastle and Borussia Dortmund meant they obtained less than their 39 shots and 3.07 expected goals (xG) deserved from the opening couple of game weeks.

Since then, an injury crisis has mounted just as the fixture list has ratcheted up in difficulty. Milan’s defence has been ravaged. Fikayo Tomori is the only fit centre-half available and Theo Hernandez, the marauding full-back, has been forced to partner him in the middle. It has disarmed Milan’s uncontainable left-hand side, which has also been without game-changer and one-man tactic Rafael Leao.

Silly red cards, the likes of which forced striker Olivier Giroud to finish the match in Genoa in goal, have also put stress on coach Stefano Pioli’s ability to rotate, a weakness of his at the best of times. The crisis got so bad that the debut of wonderkid Francesco Camarda was fast-tracked and, at 15, he became the youngest player ever to make an appearance in Serie A in the lucky win over Fiorentina.

Pioli is in his fifth season at Milan. Only Atalanta’s Gian Piero Gasperini has been longer in his job in Serie A. The 58-year-old retains the club’s gratitude for delivering the Scudetto in 2022 and a Champions League semi-final last season, but there is concern an irreversible staleness is setting in. The club sold Tonali to completely overhaul the attack and avoid an anxious fourth-place finish. Earlier in the season, it looked to have worked. Alas, Milan are currently closer to 10th than top-of-the-table Inter.

What are the reasons for Newcastle’s injury issues?

Waugh: The increased volume of matches has been a key factor, even if Howe believes many of the injuries have been “freak” incidents.

Newcastle fought last season to qualify for the Champions League and have embraced the challenge, but, ironically, the additional high-intensity matches it brings have heightened the workload and compounded their injury problems.

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Their determination to end the club’s 54-year trophy drought, which has seen Newcastle progress to the Carabao Cup quarter-finals for the second season in a row, has bloated the fixture list further. It is not something the club are complaining about as they want to be competitive on all fronts, but it means Newcastle have had midweek and weekend matches in every gameweek since the start of September and will do so until Boxing Day.

While Tonali’s absence has placed greater strain on other players — the presence of a Champions League-quality midfielder on the training field who cannot be used has been galling for Howe — so has the unfortunate nature of Newcastle’s cup draws. Alongside their so-called “Group of Death” in the Champions League, Newcastle have faced Manchester City (home) and Manchester United (away) in the Carabao Cup, with a trip to Chelsea to come in that competition, and have a first Wear-Tyne derby since 2016 at the Stadium of Light to navigate in the FA Cup. There have been no “easy” fixtures and there has been no respite.

What are the reasons for Milan’s injury issues?

Horncastle: Other coaches in Serie A, notably Lazio’s Maurizio Sarri, have complained about fixture congestion and how players are being “sent to slaughter” by playing so many games. But even within this context, Milan’s crisis is extreme.

Pioli has not changed his staff and the squad is deeper than last season, which makes the crisis even more confounding. It has led to scrutiny of recruitment. Players like Christian Pulisic and Ruben Loftus-Cheek, for instance, have a track record of spending chunks of the season on the treatment table. Pioli also picked the same XI for the first month of the campaign to settle in the Chelsea duo and fellow recruit, Tijjani Reijnders.

Since then, the player’s pre-game activation, load management and his aforementioned rotation strategy have come in for flak. It has been weird to see backup goalkeepers pick up muscle injuries in training. Pioli has been forced to use a substitution in the first half of four games, notably against Lazio, Juventus and Napoli, either to deal with one of his players tweaking a muscle or a sending-off.

Unlike Howe, who has given teenagers Lewis Miley and Lewis Hall Champions League minutes, Pioli has been reluctant to lean more on his youth team in the league. Camarda aside, it’s a mystery why talented kids like Jan-Carlo Simic and Clinton Nsiala haven’t been looked at in Serie A to help out a casualty-hit defence.

How are Newcastle supporters feeling?

Waugh: It is difficult to accurately gauge the overall mood given Newcastle are a heap of contradictions right now.

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On the evidence of the last two performances, some Newcastle fans are undoubtedly feeling trepidation ahead of this massive fixture. Yet both of those defeats came on the road and the reality is that at St James’, they are a completely different outfit, particularly in the Premier League, where they have won seven of their eight fixtures. In the Champions League, Newcastle supporters can also conjure positive memories of that historic 4-1 hammering of PSG in October, even if their most recent European outing on Tyneside was a subdued 1-0 loss to Dortmund.

With Sean Longstaff and Callum Wilson returning off the bench at Spurs and others such as Sven Botman and Joe Willock having an outside chance of coming back imminently, Newcastle’s injury picture is gradually improving, which is a real boost.

Undoubtedly, Newcastle supporters, led by Wor Flags’ pre-match display, will ensure a special, unforgettable atmosphere at St James’ and that should lift and inspire their fatigued players. Even if qualification is not in their own hands, Newcastle fans are determined to ensure their team delivers at their end — and then hope it is enough.

How are Milan supporters feeling?

Horncastle: The team was whistled after the 1-0 defeat to Udinese at San Siro last month and the mood wasn’t much better when Dortmund beat them in their own backyard a fortnight ago. Paolo Maldini, the club legend scorned by his dismissal as an executive in the summer, has not helped by accusing owners RedBird Capital of showing “no real respect for Milan’s identity and history”.

Maldini’s interview came in the same week Camarda broke his record as Milan’s youngest-ever player and the loss to Dortmund. For someone who claims to care about the club, it was a curious time to put the boot in.

Ordinarily, one might expect the ultras to rally behind him, but Maldini’s relationship with the Curva Sud is complicated. He was booed in his last appearance as a player for the club in 2009 because of his criticism of them. Pointedly the Sud, at the time, identified Franco Baresi as Milan’s true captain. Nevertheless, this is a critical period of the season for Milan. They are practically out of the title race and almost out of the Champions League and it’s not even 2024.

If things deteriorate further, a repeat of the scenes in La Spezia in May when the ultras publicly dressed down the players probably isn’t far away.

(Top image: Getty Images)

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